I’m sure that silicon valley executives visualise a future where they own the machines that produce all intellectual property and do most jobs. They see a return to feudalism where they are the lords.

I think this greater vision is about as likely to be realised as it is that Elon Musk will invent full self driving, or robots that aren’t obviously remotely operated, or a tesla roadster, or a battery powered articulated lorry with thermo nuclear explosion proof glass, or building a rocket to get the US back to the moon before the Chinese in what is clearly a new space race/pissing match. Or a hyperloop, or ever getting anywhere near to building a colony on Mars, or, or, or.

But I don’t think it is just a case of AGI or bust. LLM’s augmented with ai agents have a very real potential to replace a capitalism-destabilising percentage of white collar jobs without AGI.

Just like the dot com bubble popping didn’t kill the web, I do think it is unlikely that any possible current AI bubble popping will kill capital’s push to automate jobs away.

(And as far as I can see the AI bubble is the result of massive capital expenditure rather than rampant speculation, so because I am pretty confident in the ‘value’ to capital of LLM’s + AI Agent’s, I don’t really see it as the same kind of a bubble as the dotcom bubble.)