People who are smart in one or two domains often overestimate how smart they are in other domains. They develop a mental model, confirm it quickly, and never re-asses it.

The issue with AI, is we’re probably hitting our first real S curve with the current technology’s performance but a lot of people who bet big are only see the exponential part and assuming there won’t be a level off, or that the level of is far away.

There is no Moore’s law for AI.