Comment on dear republicans, what's the point of alienating every single ally of the US?
MortUS@lemmy.world 3 days agoThe only way a war is coming for the U.S. is if it’s a World War. If a new World War was coming, we would definitely want to be closer with our border countries than give our foreign enemies a chance. I don’t think there is a war coming, I think this all has to do with economics and the National Debt. War is a great way to get rid of National Debt and boost an economy, reduce numbers, etc. but right now, I’m just not seeing it.
I personally think a more likely issue would be that the WTO exchanges the U.S. Dollar with the Chinese Yuan especially as the U.S. lags further behind in exports while Chinese exports continue to grow.
I do think leaving Ukraine was, unfortunately, inevitable. For the U.S. it was a war of attrition and Russia out lasted what the U.S. could monetarily support. I truly hope that the EU is able to support their fight.
kava@lemmy.world 2 days ago
think of it this way. let’s say WW3 kicks off with China tomorrow. Will Canada or Mexico suddenly ally with China?
Reality is that Canada and Mexico are totally dependent on US trade. It really doesn’t matter if you piss them off they’re gonna be forced to deal with you anyway.
80% of Mexican exports are to the US. 30% of their GDP is based on American trade. If US exports stopped tomorrow, Mexican economy would immediately enter a deep depression. They have no choice but to play nice, even with 25% tariffs.
Canada is similarly stuck. 75% of exports are to the US. 50% of their imports are from the US. 20% of their GDP is based on American trade.
If you took both Canadian and Mexican trade combined and compared it to the US economy, though, it wouldn’t even reach 5%. If trade with both of these countries were to stop tomorrow, America will suffer- but growth may slow by 0.5% or 1%. Both Canada and Mexico would see a depression.
Do you see why Trump feels like he has the power to do this? This is the point I was trying to make above. Historically US presidents have been more diplomatic and subtle about how to abuse the leverage that America has by the nature of being a superpower. Trump isn’t fundamentally different except he’s exploiting this leverage loudly and in an ugly and aggressive way.
As for the upcoming war, I think it’s only a matter of time. But we’re talking a time scale of 5-10 years. We’re preparing for the future showdown. There will be one or two more flashpoints before the main war. Ukraine was one, Israel is another.
If we had to make an analogy with WW2, I’d say we’re roughly in mid ~1930s. Our Spanish Civil War is the Ukrainian war. Our Italian invasion of Ethiopia is the Israeli conflict. (Gaza, Israeli invasion of Syria, war with Lebanon, Iran, etc)