I have warned about this with respect to these numbers before, and I’m going to warn about them again: you really can’t trust the employment numbers right now. The amount of downward revisions in the past 2 years is absurd, including one 800,000 job downward revision prior to the election. It’s entirely possible and even probable that these numbers will be revised further downwards.

What I actually expect is for a lot of numbers to keep looking better than they really are until about January 20th. And then suddenly a whole bunch of stuff is going to end up looking the way it really is…