Comment on Climate scientists flee Twitter as hostility surges
rottingleaf@lemmy.world 2 weeks agoNo. Dunno where did you take that 0.5% from, it’s not empirically confirmed by anything.
Like 20% if you want to see civil war. Like 40% if you want to see regime change.
Eximius@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
There is the semi-usually-known research that suggests 3.5% is enough for non-violent protests to reach changes. www.jstor.org/stable/10.7312/chen15682
1 in 200 people is essentially everyone knowing personally one person who is against the government. Maybe it isn’t enough.
rottingleaf@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
It doesn’t work. It’s some urban legend that this is sufficient. Even those 600k may or may not be stopped by a threat of real ammo being used. I’m not even talking about coordination.
One can “prove” anything with selectively chosen statistics.
Eximius@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
They werent selectively chosen. " An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims." As well as any researcher who isn’t a complete buffoon would only look at statistics that has only a 2-3 sigma chance of only being stochastic noise.
rottingleaf@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
The set of indicators, of course, was selectively chosen. The authors, of course, have decided which of these they consider important and which don’t, that is, decided upon weights and criteria.