October 27, 2026
With only a week to go until the 2026 midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is demonstrating what a master of positive thinking he is.
During his campaigning, he has said with total confidence that his party will hold their majority in the House and that Republicans are in a strong place. However, his positive outlook is completely inaccurate.
If you look behind the scenes or just look at the data then it is clear that the GOP is in a very weak position. Despite this, Johnson is still being positive as ever and using his old stand by talking points.
Polling Bias
Every time the polls don’t look great for the GOP, the party goes into a state and blames the polling industry. They always point to the ‘polling bias’ of 2016 and 2020 where they argue that pollsters underestimate how enthusiastic conservatives are and how Donald Trump will win votes.
This is an easy excuse but it is completely misleading.
Political data analyst Nate Silver recently did a detailed analysis highlighting how presidential elections and midterms can’t be treated the same. Presidential elections have extremely high turnout and Donald Trump as a candidate so they will always be unique. This can sometimes catch pollsters off guard.
However, midterms are completely different and historically much easier to poll.
Silver analysed the average polling error by looking at all polls done during the last 3 weeks of campaigning for the House, Senate and Governorships. The conclusion was that it is a myth that polls are biased towards Democrats in midterms.
In the 2018 midterms the average error was 0 points. In the 2022 midterms the pollsters underestimated Democrats by a negligible 0.3 points.
Therefore, we can see that the data from recent midterms shows that polls are extremely accurate. There is no ‘hidden conservative wave’ that Speaker Johnson is relying on, but instead polls show that the GOP are in a tough and competitive position.
The Consequences of Ignoring the Data
By ignoring the data and acting like the GOP are going to win easily, Speaker Johnson is playing a risky game.
Instead of raising the alarm, properly using resources to their advantage and addressing peoples concerns about the future of the country and the Republican agenda, he is choosing to live in a world of denial. This will leave candidates feeling lost on the campaign trail.
Voters in 2026 will be paying attention and will see through the fake bravado. Having a member of the House of Representatives who doesn’t understand the statistics and ignores that midterms are very accurate will show that they care more about their ego than doing right by the American people.
Although Mike Johnson can act like the numbers don’t matter with only 7 days to go until the electorate have their say, on election night reality will hit him with a big punch.